As time passes by, I'm seeing diminishing relevance in the "business" of blogging... With this, I'm putting an end to the Signature Portfolio.
This portfolio was introduced 3 months back, on 1 May 2014, with the simple objective of measuring time to be taken for my conviction call in Hovid-WB to double...
Today, Hovid-WB has taken out its 3rd target of RM0.37; hence achieving the objective of 100% returns in 3 months.
Sold partial of Hovid-WB as it has hit some of my targets set earlier; before that, let's take a look at the portfolio standing before the sale...near 20% return in 2 and 1/2 months since the portfolio started.
Hovid-WB delivered a 51% return in this trade and has taken out two (2) of my three (3) targets set in my earlier post...dated 1 May 2014.
There were two (2) actions for the portfolio today:-
1. Priva goes ex-dividend...Portfolio will receive RM900 in July.
2. Made purchase in MahSing-WB. This warrant has a revised exercise px of RM1.98 amid a reasonable premium in the teens; it has an expiry in 2018.
The latest portfolio standing:-
Note that apart from Priva, the portfolio has received dividend of RM800 from Success earlier.
Signature portfolio is now about 50% invested and I look forward to adding position as market looks on track to push towards 1,900 very soon.
While I'm bearish on the physical property market, I find selective property stocks are far from getting bubbly and MahSing can be one that thrives in a challenging property sector climate.
Market fear, as measured by the inverse-correlated VIX, has subsided to a level low enough for a discomfort feeling; which in turn has spurred US indices to more new highs.
The rise in US stocks doesn't seem to benefit the local mart much in view that we have our own worries in poorer corporate earnings, increasing inflationary pressure as well as possible rate hike, going into 2H 2014, which would rub salt to the already wounded retail spending.
To begin with, I see the local slowdown to be ignited by the disillusioned "proud" property owners who got aggressive since 2010; stricken by the fact that some properties they bought are starting to rob money from their own pockets, beside the inflation worry.
By now, many would have seen or about to see their properties being completed; on one hand, they are delighted to look at their property prices put on those ads on property websites (which is free of charge) while on the other side, the reality is that they are no longer able to find those ever-willing buyers who'd pay the "dream" price they ask for as easily.
To continue holding, their option will be to rent out these properties; yet again, the enquiries they receive are few and far between (how many locals or even foreigners are willing to pay so much for rent) amid a threat in potential negative rental yield. This time, Central Bank or bankers are turning villains by keeping away the umbrellas.
A big dilemma esp. for those who are over-leveraged and only had eyes on the upside during the frenzy times. I must reiterate my point that the Super-Bull on the Asian property segment (including Malaysia of course as it made it way to one of the top 10 spot on a world chart in one of those years) the last few years was too crowded a space not to see bubble.
Any Tom, Dick and Harry would tell you to invest in properties...Any company that struggled with the bottom line would find the lifeline they needed by getting linked to property somehow. Company which manufactures bra start to realize building properties is more profitable; so do other players in tourism, industrial pipe, chemical sectors etc etc.
While we may not see Ghost Cities here, Ghost houses have prevailed and will continue to mushroom in the country...Any investment which only takes money out of your market, shouldn't be owned in the first place! Even in the hope of future capital appreciation, which is no more than mere hope.
Eventually, this could be a big drag to the economy, stock market and consumption as already taking form in China, Hong Kong, Singapore etc etc. Seriously I'm not done with the mega bear on property sector inside me yet! The hype of pre-GST frenzy, as heavily promoted by industry players and analysts, could kill the game more quickly if it doesn't materialize.
After missing the opportunity for good profits in April-May, the stock market may turn worse going into July/Aug for a more meaningful correction.
My optimism has been challenged and any spike end June or early July, may be a good time to lighten up. The next rally may shape up towards end of 4Q 2014 if things go well.
For now, we should be reaching a market climax very soon.
Added Hovid-WB today...
This brings the average cost to 0.185 and it makes up 26% of the portfolio.
This portfolio is currently 40% invested.
As for Success, it goes ex-dividend today at 4 sen (Single-Tier); a total of RM800 payout.
On broader market, FBM KLCI is only 12.93 pts away from 1,900...This is a pretty selective market still.
Amidst negative and cautious sentiment in many investors, arising from the "penny crash" recently; I find the market has a different opinion, we could be marching towards the 1,900 mark soon...
I suppose the one thing that is of value in the portfolio section of the blog is in fact the covering of ends (closed transaction) to all trades; unlike those outside portfolios.
For those not under portfolio...readers may not be able to see the closing of a trade. For instance, I shared my entry into MAS in Aug/Sep 2013; however, I exited end Oct upon a technical sell signal, made a small profit from the trade. My recent encounter with MAS was buying around 0.22 and sold at 0.235 during the MH370 mishap; and the last entry was at 0.21 on the subsequent sell down amid very light position.