FBM KLCI...What's Next After 1Q 2014?

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My previous comment on market was that the uptrend would continue into 1Q 2014 and FBM KLCI in fact did so by staying close to its historical high.

In reviewing the current market undertone, I suspect the market could continue to trend higher next; of course not without any volatility in between, which will mainly affect the index-linked stocks and not so much on lower liners.

With Central Bank's intent to remain accommodative amid loose monetary policy, the market will unlikely to see any major shock for 2014. A 25 to 50 bps rise to the OPR, at most in any "aggressive" move, will cause a lil' pain but not death. The world is still indulged in surfing the sea of liquidity...and tapering remain a show in production for its premier probably in 2015/6. It's a "take one step at a time" market...

In sum, there are still profit opportunities around, while we continue our journey towards the apex of this Bull Run (since 2009)...

Alpha Chart...I'm Back! For A Good Reason...?

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Since I have been quite settled right now and with a bit more time to "idle", I'm making a light comeback amid a "fun trigger"; shall share soon... 

Alpha Chart...The "Long-Term Short" Target of FBM KLCI at 800

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Up till now, I'm still holding on to my next major down-leg target of FBM KLCI at 800 (best case: 1,000), even though the index continues to climb higher (seemingly a Wall of Worry to me).

It's apparent that the economy keeps producing more system imbalances amid more mistakes from policymakers; governments remain active and creative at the Money-Printing Magic Show; people remain drunk at a party and still wanting more (greed without sensible assessment of risk); risk and reward disorder where dumb money are being rewarded while smart money getting punished; and government on a driver seat while businesses on passenger seat in a financial ride toward a "supposedly" better tomorrow.

An absolute re-write of world financial theories; however I ponder if this could go on forever especially in the face of a potential game-changer in the start of Fed tapering.  

While the whole world is at risk of another global financial crisis; the risk for Asia is at the paramount of the spectrum. There is great risk of "Asian Financial Crisis 2.0" particularly for the SEA countries as I stressed time and over. 

As for Malaysia; it could turn out to be "A Big Trouble in Lil' Malaysia". The termites in more policy mistakes and investors foolishly playing the game of "greater fool", could quickly land us into the long-overdue crisis which could come between 2014-2016, when reality (both external and internal factors) bites. Denials will only grow the bubble balloon bigger. Time to tell the Greatest Fools...?!

Many would have kicked themselves for unloading investment too early and missed the bigger money esp. in the 2011-2013 rally; this has created the false belief in people that long term investment is the way to go no matter at what price, without weighing the risk. This could be unhealthy as this group of investors are typically new (probably started investing since 2000) to investment market and they seriously don't understand financial market well enough.

There are just too many inexperienced participants making too good money and having a unanimous suicidal thought that asset prices will only go higher and couldn't care less about cyclical risk... a great sign of bubble.

Expect very few  or no post from now on...and I'm not sure if I would return even if FBM KLCI does go down to 800...Again, my final advice is "Think risk, then profit".

Alpha Chart...Short-Term Long; Long-Term Short

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This describes my take on the Malaysian market prospect as we move on from here. We may not be far from the catastrophe that I started to write about since 2011, particularly on the risk of our red-hot (still?) property sector which I receive more and more echoes these days.


Hovid-WB...Best-Valued Warrants on Bursa?

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Hovid has been hogging quite a fair bit of limelight recently with the coverage of its promising domestic and international pharma business by some analysts.

The attraction lies in the opening up of market opportunity, for generic drugs manufacturer such as Hovid, upon the patent expiry of some ethical drugs over the next years.

I guess I don't have to promote the prospect of pharma industry amid a growing population (as well as ageing) of the world esp. in Asia; hence the humongous demand for pharma products.

In my confidence towards Hovid, I find the sweet spot in its extremely attractive warrants for a leverage play. Being traded now at a slight discount (Ex Px of 0.18) only a few months into quotation, the upside of this warrant can be enormous when Hovid continues to chalk up gains.

Borrowing from Peter Lynch in one of his favourite terms; Hovid-WB could be a "Multi-Bagger"...  

EAH...Is There More to This "Lost Ace"?

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Finally, EAH came under the radar of some investors with a strong showing the last 2 weeks. Judging from the strength of the stock, there could be more to the upside immediately before a breather sets in...

Alpha Chart...Slowing Down

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My last post was about a month ago; readers would notice that I'm slowing down on blogging and I reckon this would go on for a while. However, I've not slowed down on my personal investing and would like to share a very brief list of stocks to watch:-

1. MAS- Continue to believe the price breakdown runs ahead of the bad news; it's very cheap at this price.
2. Hovid- A promising penny stock offering medium to long term great profits potential; its warrants are exceptionally attractive. This has overtaken MAS to be my top holding while I still maintain the MAS position fully.
3. EAH- The lost ace of ACE showing longer term bottoming out sign with expected improvement in earnings.

There are still aplenty of penny stocks, in particular, offering profits potential as long as we continue to party on here... Again this is the best space for investment now, I predict a switch of property money into stocks going forward; I seriously don't see much value in the property space at these price levels. 

I'm hopeful of at least a decent run from now till 1Q-2Q 2014...Time to own stocks.

MAS...Never Better Than Now?

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From price perspective, MAS has become a penny stock. A series of bad earnings through the years, coupled with further dilution in a massive right issues recently, sent its price to where it's today.

However, things may change soon when investors (may) start to realize that it's not all that bad for MAS from many angles, and the beating it took was way too much.

My last dabble into MAS was light due to the quick move in the upside; this time, I had enough time to accumulate a more substantial position. Amid a still light overall equity position for myself, MAS has become my top holding now...

The risk in MAS comes from the very uncertain broad market direction in Oct/Nov. On a separate note, CIMB has just issued an Underperform call on MAS. This however really doesn't bother me at all as there are times we make money going against research house's call.

If everyone can fly; I believe MAS can too...

 

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